Basketball and gambling have more in common than you may think. So as to succeed at pursuit, it helps to have an established system. In the case of basketball, having a reliable offensive strategy that you’re able to roll out every game regardless of the matchup gives you a leg-up. Believe Mike D’Antoni’s free-flowing space-and-pace assault or Jerry Sloan’s nearly unbeatable pick-and-roll crime from the 1980s and 90s.
When it comes to gambling, you can gain the exact same type of advantage by having a closely defined set of rules that you can apply to every single match regardless of who’s on the court.
Luckily, you do not need to produce your own betting system from scratch. There are already several recognized strategies which you can try on for size once you put down wagers on your favorite teams, and there’s no rule against pilfering in the playbooks of those who came before you. We have included a number of the most reliable systems and money-management strategies below, together with insights on the best way best to use them. When coupled with an comprehension of the game, these systems might help turn rookie betters to all-stars.
The High Totals System
Few approaches are easier to understand and use in relation to the High Totals System created by Allen Moody, a sports-betting professional and the author of Getting a Winning Gambler and Sports Betting Basics. Moody discovered that sportsbooks frequently underestimate game levels for NBA non-conference games, and started taking the over on all games with an over/under of 220 total points. It’s a very simple approach, but it paid off as he had been right 63.5% of the time for many games meeting that criteria from 2004-05 to 2008-09.
Those kinds of games were rarities a decade ago, but they are becoming more common now as groups push the pace and drain more three-pointers. Back in 2004-05, NBA teams scored an average of 97.2 points each game. That number jumped to 100.0 in 2008-09 and climbed all the way to 105.6 in 2016-17. Sportsbooks have gotten savvy to this trend, but there’s still value to be seen by taking the above in games with particularly high total-point projections.

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